Energy Market Briefing

Alex's morning desk note (10 July) reports that the guns have fallen silent in the Middle East after two days of deadly US-Iran strikes, with a US official telling Al Jazeera that Washington remains committed to negotiations and technical talks continue. It is not a formal ceasefire: the US has been striking and then pausing to avoid escalation while negotiators meet behind the scenes, and Fox News and Modern Diplomacy both describe the wider ceasefire framework as stalling rather than holding firm.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked. Three tankers, the LNG carrier Al Rekayyat, the crude tanker Wedyan and the crude tanker Cyprus Prosperity, were struck overnight on 6 to 7 July, and Bloomberg and Al Jazeera both report traffic has since plunged to a near-standstill with no large vessel crossings on the main tracked route. Around a fifth of the world's oil and LNG normally passes through the strait.

Washington has revoked a temporary licence that had allowed Iran to keep selling crude and products under the interim agreement, which Iran's foreign ministry called a ceasefire violation. Israel has also shared intelligence with the US of a fresh Iranian plot against President Trump, underlining why the pause looks fragile even as regional diplomacy, including calls between Iran's foreign minister and his Turkish and Omani counterparts, continues.

Alex's Market Table for 10 July shows UK gas Win-26 up 1.72% and UK power Win-26 up 1.80% at Thursday's (9 July) close, with most other seasons out to Sum-29 also firmer on the day as the market kept a Hormuz risk premium priced in.

TTF prompt was at 49.45 EUR/MWh, up 0.53% on 9 July. Brent was trading around $76.49 a barrel in early Friday dealing, up about 0.25%, after a volatile week of a sharp mid-week rally followed by a Thursday pullback; the contract is still on course for a gain of close to 6% on the week.

The Safe union strike and lockout affecting Norwegian offshore oil and gas operations continued into July, with output losses reported to be able to exceed 120,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day if the action runs past mid-July. It is a labour dispute rather than a technical failure, and a separate, background pressure on supply from Hormuz.

Even as the EU's phase-out proceeds, Russian pipeline gas imports to the bloc rose around 7% year-on-year and Russian LNG imports around 17% in the first half of 2026, as buyers reportedly maximise deliveries ahead of tighter restrictions and hedge against Middle East supply uncertainty.

GridWatch at 09:40 BST on 10 July showed gas supplying about 34% of Britain's power and solar around 21%, with wind at under 4% of a 33.8GW demand. Nuclear, biomass and net interconnector imports made up most of the rest.

The latest UK weather signal file (9 July run) shows an average day-on-day change of -0.30C versus the previous run, with its verdict reading: UK heating nil, European cooling demand steady, gas flat, power flat, colder 1.2C from Monday. See the temperature chart below.

The exceptional heat and wind-drought strain of late June, when National Grid ESO had to take emergency measures and system frequency stayed low for a record stretch, is behind us for now, with the new forecast pointing to a gradual cooling from the weekend into next week.